BBC NewsBorrowing was £17.4bn last month, the second highest October figure since monthly records began in 1993.
Finito World
The return of Donald Trump to the White House has triggered more than a political recalibration — it is actively reshaping the trajectory of global growth. For both CEOs and job-seekers, the impact is already filtering through in tangible and troubling ways. The OECD’s most recent forecast has revised global growth for 2025 down from 3.1% to 2.9%, attributing this drop largely to the reintroduction of tariffs by the US administration. Though the reduction may appear marginal, in economic terms it amounts to a sizeable reduction in potential output and, critically, job creation.
The chief economist of the OECD, Álvaro Pereira, did not mince his words when he told the BBC: “We are forecasting basically a downgrade for almost everybody. We’ll have a lot less growth and job creation than we had forecasted in the past.” At the heart of the disruption is the unpredictability of the Trump administration’s tariff strategy. It is not merely the existence of new trade barriers but the capricious manner of their implementation that is damaging confidence. Businesses are reluctant to invest, unsure whether today’s policy will survive the week. For firms that rely on global supply chains, this uncertainty is toxic, and for prospective employees, it translates directly into fewer new opportunities and more delayed hiring decisions.
In the United States, the OECD now expects the economy to grow at just 1.6% this year, down from 2.2%, with further slowing anticipated in 2026. Official data confirms that the US economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025 — the first such contraction since 2022 — despite President Trump’s claim on social media that, “Because of tariffs, our economy is BOOMING!” The reality is more complex and far less rosy.
The United Kingdom, too, is showing signs of strain. Although it posted a stronger-than-expected 0.7% growth between January and March, the OECD now predicts growth of just 1.3% for the year, down slightly from its earlier forecast of 1.4%, and only 1% in 2026. The report warns that this apparent strength masks a weakening trend driven by eroding business confidence and dampened export expectations. Furthermore, the UK faces its own structural pressures. High levels of government debt and limited fiscal room have led to tighter spending plans. Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently announced £14 billion in corrective measures, including £4.8 billion in welfare cuts, to maintain adherence to self-imposed fiscal rules.
As the OECD notes, the government may now have little choice but to consider additional revenue-raising measures, potentially through overdue tax reforms such as updating council tax bands based on current property values. While this could generate administrative jobs in the short term, the broader effect of fiscal restraint will be a softening in public sector hiring, particularly in non-clinical NHS roles, regional development bodies, and local government services. Any job growth here is likely to be narrowly targeted, with the government prioritising defence and healthcare under pressure from manifesto commitments and the urgent need to reduce NHS waiting times.
The sector-specific implications of this shift are both immediate and uneven. Industries that rely heavily on global trade — such as automotive manufacturing, steel production, aerospace, and agriculture — are already feeling the strain. Reduced access to international markets, increased input costs, and a general cooling in global demand mean that employers in these sectors are beginning to pull back on hiring, delay investment, and, in some cases, consider relocation or redundancy. The UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders has warned that automotive exports to the US have declined 12% year-on-year — a clear early signal of tariff impact.
Professional services such as law, consulting, and finance are not immune, especially those with multinational clients or exposure to cross-border regulatory complexity. Firms that typically thrive on global growth are now dealing with stalling mandates, frozen client budgets, and reduced transaction volumes. However, sub-sectors dealing with compliance, regulatory change, restructuring, and insolvency may experience a modest uptick as clients reconfigure to survive.
Meanwhile, the public sector is entering a holding pattern. Government hiring is likely to be constrained, with a focus on roles tied to politically sensitive priorities such as defence and health, while back-office and advisory functions in less protected departments may face prolonged freezes. In local government, especially in rural or non-core urban areas, roles dependent on central funding are at risk. Any new employment is expected to be highly selective.
Not all areas are suffering equally. Amid this volatility, digital and data-driven roles are proving resilient. Both governments and companies increasingly need internal forecasting capacity, supply chain intelligence, and economic modelling tools. The growth of the green economy also continues to present long-term opportunity — though many of these roles require reskilling and are not evenly distributed across the country.
For those at the start of their careers, the challenge is acute. As confidence declines, employers tend to prioritise experience, delaying graduate recruitment cycles, reducing internships, and pulling back on apprenticeships. Investment in learning and development often declines too, just when it’s needed most. This puts the onus on job-seekers to proactively build resilience, develop portable skills such as digital fluency and strategic thinking, and position themselves in less trade-exposed sectors like healthcare, education, and domestic services. Employability providers will play a crucial role in preparing young people to adapt to an economy where linear career paths are increasingly a relic of the past.
From a corporate perspective, CEOs and executive teams face a twin imperative. They must preserve financial resilience while also protecting talent pipelines that will be essential when the cycle turns. That means honest communication with staff, a hard look at supply chain exposure, and above all, thoughtful investment in skills retention. As Dr. Fiona MacGregor, labour economist at the LSE, notes: “Uncertainty is toxic for long-term workforce planning. But companies that invest in people during downturns emerge stronger. Loyalty is forged in hard times.”
For job-seekers, too, the strategy must shift. Rigid expectations must give way to creative navigation. This is not a time to simply wait for the perfect role — it is a moment to re-skill, pivot, and seize opportunities that arise even in unexpected sectors. The future of work is less about endurance and more about interpretation: reading the shifts, finding the hidden doorways, and learning to act when the map changes.
Ultimately, the tariffs are a symptom of something larger: a world once defined by open flows now retrenching into protective postures. But even in this new, harder-edged economic environment, the same principles apply. Learning matters. Adaptability matters. And so does vision. Growth may have slowed — but for the prepared, for those ready to think differently, opportunity hasn’t disappeared. It has simply moved.
In the end, resilience isn’t about standing still through the storm. It’s about learning to walk in the rain, and knowing where to step next.
